I study the impact of international actors and processes on politics, ranging from the macro-level (interstate conflict, trade disputes, civil war) to the micro-level. My main interests in political methodology are Bayesian approaches to multilevel structures, and data visualization. Please e-mail me for a copy of my full research statement.

My Google Scholar profile is here.

Book project
Other current projects


Karreth, Johannes, Shane P. Singh, and Szymon M. Stojek. 2015. "Explaining Attitudes toward Immigration: The Role of Regional Context and Individual Predispositions." West European Politics 38 (6): 1174-1202.
Migration neither increases hostility nor tolerance toward immigrants uniformly. How people in Western Europe respond to increasing diversity through migration depends on their ideological predispositions. Measuring migration and diversity at the regional level in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland shows the importance of capturing the relevant context when testing arguments about individuals' exposure to trends and resulting policy attitudes.

Sullivan, Patricia and Johannes Karreth. 2015. "The Conditional Impact of Military Intervention on Internal Armed Conflict Outcomes." Conflict Management and Peace Science 32 (3): 269-288.
Contrary to previous arguments, interventions on behalf of governments (and also rebels) in civil conflicts are not ineffective (or effective) across the board. How much they affect the odds of conflict victory of their supported target depends on whether that target's primary challenge is a lack of conventional war-fighting capacity.

Karreth, Johannes and Jaroslav Tir. 2013. "International Institutions and Civil War Prevention." Journal of Politics 75 (1): 96-109.
Even though they are typically associated with more peaceful relations between states, IGOs also contribute to preventing violent political conflict within countries. IGOs with central formal structures provide positive and negative incentives to conflict parties to refrain from escalating political violence.

Karreth, Johannes, Jonathan Polk, and Christopher Allen. 2013. "Catchall or Catch and Release? The Electoral Consequences of Social Democratic Parties' March to the Middle in Western Europe." Comparative Political Studies 46 (7), 791-822.
Political scientists and party strategists alike have argued that a winning strategy for major parties in electoral democracies is to move toward the center to increase their vote share. We show that when considered at the individual voters' level and over time, moving toward the center changes the composition of Social Democratic voters toward less attached voters, and it leads to a loss of former core voters. In the long run, moving to the center does not promise lasting electoral gains for these parties.

Stinnett, Douglas, Bryan Early, Cale Horne, and Johannes Karreth. 2011. "Complying by Denying: Explaining Why States Develop Nonproliferation Export Controls." International Studies Perspectives 12 (3), 308-326.
UN Security Council Resolution 1540 created a binding obligation for all UN member states to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Addressing the question whether compliance with this piece of international law is influenced most by a state's economic and governmental capacities and has little to do with interest-based factors.


My book project examines how international institutions can contribute to peaceful dispute resolution between states. I compiled an original dataset on international institutions to explore this question. The results of my related work have been published in the Journal of Politics. See here for more information.


Multilateral trade agreements and defendant behavior in WTO trade disputes. A central debate in international relations asks whether an expanding menu of choices between international institutions makes cooperation within existing institutions more or less likely. This study examines this question in the context of international trade disputes. It shows that overlapping trade institutions shape outcomes of trade disputes within the dispute settlement system of the GATT/WTO. The growth of institutions with certain configurations can therefore foster cooperation in the context of international trade; regional trade agreements are more likely to be stepping stones rather than stumbling blocks in this issue area.

International organizations and the domestic politics of interstate cooperation over freshwater resources. Much of international cooperation research has long assumed that building and deepening international agreements can substitute for weak domestic bureaucratic capacity when it comes to promoting cooperative policies between countries. This project probes whether a substitutive effect of institutionalized elements of international treaties is present in the context of interstate cooperation over freshwater resources.

Effects of counterinsurgency strategies on post-civil war human rights practices. Civilian populations suffer in all domestic armed conflicts, but some governments protect human rights more than others once conflicts have ended. This project explores the legacy of insurgents' and counterinsurgents' strategies during civil wars for human rights practices after conflicts end.

Public demand for education policy in advanced economies. Governments of advanced open economies in particular have incentives to invest in human capital formation to maintain competitiveness. Yet, demand for public investment in education policy varies substantially between publics in different OECD countries. Examining this variation, this project probes how political institutions can sustain support for public goods provision even under otherwise difficult conditions.

Manuscripts related to these projects are currently under review or revision; please e-mail me for drafts.